A Winning Thoroughbred Wagering System

Thoroughbred wagering systems and methods are a dime a dozen and most of them are worth even less. Each month the endlessly fun and entertaining Phillips Racing Newsletter publishes a few of the “good ones” but even these rarely hold up for very long. Oh, don’t get me wrong, they’re enjoyable to play and do remarkably well compared with the results of the average punter left to his own devices, but you aren’t likely to show a profit from them at the end of the year. Maybe there have been one or two exceptions over the years, ones that showed a slight profit, but that’s about all.

So imagine my surprise one day, while killing time between races, when I dreamed this one up out of the clear blue sky from way, way out in left field. As soon as it popped into my head I knew it could work. That is, I didn’t see any obvious flaws. After all, it was based on sound fundamentals and statistics of the game. And, it was very, very simple. Very few moving parts so to speak. So without wasting any more time, here it is, as Rod Serling would say, “submitted for your approval”.

The System

OK, it’s based on the statistic that the public betting favorite wins the race close to 33% of the time. What, you mean like last year? Big deal. Nope. Since as long as they’ve been keeping records (approximately 100 years). This statistic holds up week after week, year after year, decade after decade, at every track throughout the world. Kind of spooky, but it’s absolutely true.

Now sure, some days the favorite will win only twice, or maybe even only once. Other days, the favorite will win 4 or 5 times. But it all evens out to 33%, 1 in 3. Check the stats at your own track. You’ll find it’s close to that figure. Some tracks run a little higher, some a little lower. But it’s always right around there.

OK, so what does this buy us? Are you saying we should just bet the favorite in every race and cash a third of our tickets and get rich? Oh, that would be nice. No, that won’t work. You see the problem with that approach is that you win a third of the time but that means that you lose two thirds of the time. So obviously in order to show a profit, you need to make more money when you win than you spend when you lose. Now sometimes favorites pay 5/2 or even 3/1 if you’re lucky, but most of the time they pay very little. In any event, this method has been proven to be a loser since the dawn of horse race betting.

Now another statistic of note is that in addition to the favorite winning 33% of the time, the 2nd betting favorite wins approximately 20% of the time. The 3rd betting favorite wins approximately 12% of the time. And the 4th betting favorite wins approximately 5% of the time.

Therefore, my approach makes use of these stats and works like this:

1. First, we bet the exacta, we don’t bet to win. (The exacta or perfecta as it is sometimes called is a bet that you win when you correctly select the 1st and 2nd place finishers in exact order.)

2. We bet the favorite on top of the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th betting favorites.

You will generally hit 2 or 3 exactas per 9-race card. The operative word is “generally”. Sometimes you will hit zero. And sometimes you will hit 5. But the nice thing about this is when you do hit, you will usually make a decent score which more than makes up for your losers.

Variations

The basic method is pretty simple and straightforward but I have employed a few variations that have yielded fantastic results (though they do increase the risk somewhat).

Variation 1 is to make an additional bet to the one in the basic method – bet the 2nd favorite over the favorite. This allows you to catch those races where the two horses duke it out in the stretch and the 2nd favorite noses out the favorite (which happens a lot).

Variation 2 is to bet the favorite on top of the entire field. In other words, don’t just stop with the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th choices. Bet them all! Why would you make so many bets? Because every once in a while (once a day, or once every other day) you will hit a monster. Your favorite will run 1st and a 45-1 shot will somehow miraculously finish 2nd. And when that happens, and it will, oh happy day.

Go ahead, try this on paper for awhile. Just pick up your local race results newspaper or online and see how you would have done. It’s going to surprise you.

Lay Back and Think of Winning

Horse Racing Information no longer means trying to find which horse is going to win. With the introduction of the betting exchanges and more notably ‘Betfair,’ finding horses that will lose is now the name of the game. Of course this does not just apply horse racing, name virtually any major sport and you can now lay, back or trade on the outcome of your chosen event.

Betfair has recently set up an operations centre in San Francisco with the imminent change in gambling laws set to boost the flagging US economy. This will revolutionize gambling in the US the way it has in Europe and the rest of the world. Betfair used correctly has the potential to be your very own money tree as you learn the market fluctuations and trends.

I have using various different methods on Betfair since it’s inception over 10 years ago and after around 5 or 6 years of trial and error I have now got 6 systems which I use on a daily basis to produce jaw dropping results. Having invested in various horse racing information services and systems over the years of which most simply do not work, in 2006 put my own systems into operation and have never looked back.

It takes me around 1 hour every morning to check the racing press on and offline to gather the required information, a few clicks of the mouse on Betfair or a similar exchange and 80%+ of my days trading are successful, Occasionally I will need to check price changes during the afternoon but the bulk of my systems take just a few seconds to execute.

Many times the outcome of the event is irrelevant as I have traded in such a way that whatever the outcome I am guaranteed to be in profit, though 95% of my bets are straight ‘back or lay’ as this is by far the most profitable way to succeed on betfair and that which my systems are geared too.

Betfair will take a 5% commission on your winning transactions however that can fall as low as 3% the more successful you are. Unlike a traditional bookmaker you betting against your fellow gamblers so there is never any danger of have your account closed for consistent winning, winners are welcome! For just a small monthly payment I will show you how trade on the exchanges like a pro and make massive profits on a daily basis.

Winning Lotto Strategies Review – Are These Lotto Strategies Scams?

Are there really lottery strategies that can provide an edge to players? I must say that I never saw the game of lotto that way until I started hearing about some winners claiming that they had a systematic way of picking their numbers. Being curious to explore this further, I eventually purchased a guide online called Winning Lotto Strategies.

The author claims to have cracked a number selection system that has helped produced more lottery winners on a consistent basis. It sounded really exciting to me and made me want to look into it further.

1. Some Facts about Lotto Winnings

After reading the guide, I began to learn that the consistent lottery winners had a systematic way of selecting their numbers based on facts and percentages. For example, it is said that about 20% of lottery players pick their own numbers whereas the other 80% use the quick pick.

But the percentage of winners are not split in the same percentage. There are roughly about the same number of winners in the group who pick their own numbers as there are in the group who use quick pick. This statistic shows that the people who are using a system to pick their numbers have a much better chance of winning.

2. How to Use The Winning Lotto Strategies Guide to Increase Your Chances of Winning

Inside the guide, you will learn the history of how numbers have been drawn in the game of lottery, and how you can use some of these number patterns to maximize your chances of winning the big prize. After using the number system in the guide myself for a few months, I have not hit the big prize but I have had winnings of close to $10,000 once.

It certainly seems to make a lot of sense to follow the facts and a system when playing the lotto. I would encourage you to learn more about the number system instead of picking numbers randomly if you want to give yourselves a better chance of winning.

Have You Ever Missed Winning The Lottery By Just One Number?

Picture this – You’re sitting at your computer and checking your lotto ticket numbers on the lottery’s website. First number matches. Cool. Second number matches. You’re getting somewhere. Third number matches. Nice. Fourth number matches. Wow! Fifth number matches. Oh my gosh, this could be good. Last number misses. D’oh!

Has this scenario ever happened to you? Have you ever missed winning the lottery by just one number? It’s actually not as rare as you think. This happens to thousands of people every year.

Let me give you an example of the sheer number of people that missing winning a jackpot by just one number. In Canada, the most popular game is Lotto 649. To win the jackpot, you have to match 6-out-of-6 numbers. On any given draw, it’s normal that no-one wins the jackpot. Sometimes one person wins the jackpot, sometimes two. But do you want to know how many people get 5-out-of-6-numbers? It’s usually anywhere from 50 to 100 people. Lotto 549 is played twice a week in Canada and that means, in any given year, about 5000 to 10,000 people in the country miss winning the lottery by just one number. that’s a lot of people.

It’s not just in Canada that so many people get close to winning the jackpot without actually winning it. For example, in Florida, it’s common that about 20 people get 5-out-of-6 numbers in the Florida Lotto each draw. Florida Lotto is drawn twice a week, so we’re looking at more than 4000 Floridians getting close to winning the lottery every year. And that’s just one game in one state. Imagine what the number would be if we counted all the close-calls in all of the states.

That’s why I’m writing this today – If this close-call phenomenon has ever happened to you, you should know that you are not alone. It happens to far more people than you can imagine.

Some people are more than happy to match 5-out-of-6 numbers in the lotto. After all, matching that many numbers usually results in a prize of a few hundred dollars to a few thousand dollars. That’s money in your pocket that you didn’t have prior to the win. Other people, however, are not happy about. After all, they were just one number away from winning a life-changing amount of money, perhaps millions of dollars. What do you think? Would you be happy about being one number short of a jackpot?

Free Online Poker Guide to 3 Key Short Stack Satellite Play Winning Methods

In this free online poker article I want to give you a share a game example which I came across on a Bubbling satellite table. I played a couple of these last week, and I have encountered it a couple times before too.

The game was an $11 double shootout satellite for a $215 tournament. Top 2 makes the ticket and I was in 3rd. There were 2 bigger stacks and one shorter stack, and I was the shorter stack.

I had about 1500; my 2 adversaries had about 7000. Blinds were 75-150, so not much room to play for me. But my opponents were both playing super tight. This is one of the tells you have to immediately pick up on when you get close to the tickets.

This means that they are players who are most likely barely have $200 as a current bankroll, and do not want to mess anything up (since its so much for them). That’s of course what you have to take advantage of.

Getting back to the situation, my 2 opponents were super tight. They could’ve easily taken me out, but instead I stole my way up to about 3000 in about 10 minutes.

At this point when you get re-raised, be sure to fold, and let them have it. With the way the are playing, there will be many more opportunities.

The kept on avoiding me until they both caught a big hand (AA vs KQ where AA flopped a set and KQ the straight.) So they went on and knocked each other out. And I made the ticket.

Now I want to try to give you some 3 tips on how to maximize your chances when you’re attacking shorts or are a short.

1 – Always try to be aggressive. The bigger your stack, the better. Always raise the shorties Big Blind. Since they are short they can’t afford to play.

So they have the chance push or fold. They will most often fold though, since you are so aggressive and are hoping you will go battle with the bigger stacks.

2 – DO NOT battle with the bigger stacks, unless you have premium hands!

You want the money from the shorter stacks, not the bigger who can either knock you out or cripple you!

Even if you have KK and there’s an ace on the flop, FOLD! You want to kill shorties, it doesn’t matter if you ship some chips to a larger stack.

3 – When you raise the shorties, and you get reraised (all-in), don’t hesitate to call!

These shorties often fill up with frustration and will often push with any ace or medium king.

Don’t be afraid to call with 10-8, where you are often only 60-40 behind. When the short stack has less then 30% of your stack, I would call with just about anything (given the blinds represent a reasonable portion of your stack)

I hope that this article makes it a little clearer to you that being aggressive is the best way in cashing in satellites on both the cash sites as well as free online poker. Remember the minute you start tightening up and let the shorter stacks roam freely, you’re bringing problems that could be easily avoided!

Texas Holdem Tournament Strategy – Winning vs. Aggressive Players

The Texas Hold’em poker phenomenon has taken the country by storm. There are reportedly over 100 million active poker players worldwide. Poker’s popularity is largely the byproduct of technology and several recent trends: 1) online gaming, where players engage and socialize in real-time over the Internet, and 2) the broad publicity created by high profile TV shows like the World Series of Poker and World Poker Tour.

With all the poker-mania, there’s an amazing shortage of quality information to help people learn how to play properly and become great players quickly. This is the first in a series of Texas Holdem strategy articles aimed at helping players learn how to win at Texas Hold’em poker. Tournament play is a popular, fun sport. These articles will help players understand how to approach tournaments, which differ greatly from regular “ring game” play.

This installment deals with the most-asked question: “How do I deal effectively with aggressive players?” Many players struggle against “maniacs”, the aggressive, wild players who play most every hand, somehow seem to pull cards out of thin air, and often manage to dominate the table.

Here’s what actually happened in a recent poker tournament. I entered a tournament at the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel and Casino in Hollywood, Florida, about 20 minutes from my home in South Florida. This weekly $300 entry-fee tournament fills the poker room with 220 players every Monday night.

The blinds start at 50/100 and go up every 15 minutes. I spent the first 30 minutes just hanging out and occasionally limping in to see a flop. The reason for “treading water” was to study my opponents and their playing patterns very closely. There were a number of solid poker players, but right away I spotted the aggressive ones.

I was sitting in the middle, directly across from the dealer. There were two “wild men” to my right. These two participated in most every hand, and agonized with themselves whenever they had to throw a hand away. This was hilarious to me, and it was also very telling. I knew these dudes were doomed from the onset, yet they were extremely dangerous if they caught something with one of their trash hands. These types are great targets, but only when you know how to play them correctly. If you do, you’ll end up with most or all of their chips in your stack. The key is to get to their chips before someone else does.

There were some squeaky-tight and solid players, as usual. Finally, there were two other players to my left who knew one another very well and spoke what sounded like Russian. These two played very aggressively. They rarely called or checked. They would bet or raise the pot significantly, so if they played a hand, you knew they were going to bet it big and you’d better be prepared to push a bunch of your chips into the middle. As a result, the table became tight overall, except for these four players who controlled the early action and dictated the table tempo for the first hour or so. They gambled with wanton abandon, trading chips with each other as the rest of us just observed and wished for a real hand to materialize.

It became apparent that our maniacs were playing mostly garbage hands, and using assertive chatter in an attempt to intimidate everyone. They were enjoying pushing everyone around with their aggressive betting and raising style. Humorously, they got into a number of showdowns, causing all of their trash hands to become openly exposed; e.g., 69 off-suit, Q3 suited, etc. I definitely had these guys pegged now – if only I could get a strong hand…

Later, one of my Russian “friends” came in over the top of a bet I’d placed with a huge raise, then smiled at me as he leaned his head back as if to say “Go ahead. I dare you”. My middle pair just wasn’t strong enough to engage with him, but I remembered this little “lesson” and my mistake. He’d used this tactic many times against the others and I should’ve expected it. I also realized that we had not seen any of his supposed “big hands”, as he always mucked them. Whenever you see an aggressive player dominating, and then mucking all those supposed “great hands”, you know you’ve spotted a target.

We played on, with the two maniacs to my right getting busted out by the Russian contingent. It’s been an hour and fifteen minutes – and I still haven’t seen even one decent hand yet! This is, unfortunately, typical poker.

After about an hour-and 45 minutes, I finally pick up a pair of wired 9’s (99). Now I was hoping the flop would yield a set (trips). Sure enough, it came: 9, K, 5. I was elated and jumping up and down (inside). I was finally in a position to make my move, and hoped it would be against one of my aggressive Russian friends with their big stacks.

To prepare my trap, I delayed and muddled around for about ten seconds, and then casually “checked” verbally and using my hand in a chopping motion, with a slightly disgusted look. Next, the younger Russian moves in with a big bet of 3,000 chips. I was sure I had him now. As expected, everyone else quickly folded and got out of his way – except me. This fellow had pushed everyone around and I was finally properly armed and ready to do battle on my own terms. Note that this had been my “battle plan” all along. I was deliberately targeting these aggressive characters, knowing that when the time was right, their ill-gotten stacks would become mine!

The action came back around to me, so now it was just the two of us heads-up. The two Russians said something to each other that the rest of us couldn’t decipher. I delayed and bobbed my head around as if to be struggling with my decision. Then, I motioned with both hands and uttered “I’m all-in”. I knew this series of actions would likely trigger an aggressive reaction, since my “check-raise” made it appear as if I was trying to steal this pot! A check-raise almost always triggers a full-tilt response from an aggressive player.

He immediately called me – he was so aggressive (and pot-committed) that it was like a fish taking the bait and running for deep waters – hook line and sinker! I threw my pair of 9’s over, revealing the trip 9’s. There was a low murmur around the table from the other players. My young Russian friend reluctantly flipped his five/trash hand over – he had a pair of fives (with a King over-card showing on the board!). He was definitely angling to drive me out of this pot with his ascertive play – one too many times…

You see, no one actually gets that many great hands in poker – nobody. If someone plays 30% to 40% or more of the time, they’re just “gambling” and bluffing. This guy thinks he has a “good” hand, because he actually had a real pair – something he doesn’t often have when pushing everyone around with mostly aggressive betting as his only real weapon.

The turn came and it wasn’t a five – then someone pipes up and says “he’s drawing dead”. Believe me, you never want to hear that when you’re in a showdown! I looked over as he said something in Russian to his buddy – another violation of tournament rules, as everyone is compelled to speak English at the tournament table. It wouldn’t matter, as he stood up, grabbed his jacket and left after receiving some consolation from his friend.

His older friend glared over at me and uttered something derogatory in Russian. I had no clue what he said, but I knew from his tone that I didn’t like it. I also knew I’d gotten under his skin by taking down his buddy and raking in all of his chips. I responded with “what’s that, I don’t understand what you’re saying since you’re not speaking English?” loudly so everyone at the table could hear me.

He mumbled something about his friend…I smiled and said politely with a smile “I deliberately laid that trap for your friend and he fell right into it!”, pushing the knife in deeper, knowing he’d be gunning for me anyway – might as well make sure my next trap was fully set. This also signaled to everyone else at the table that whenever I checked or limped, it could be extremely dangerous if assumed to be a sign of weakness – something I’d leverage later as the blinds and antes rose and the proper time to bluff and steal blinds actually arrived.

After a slight pause, my Russian friend noticed that everyone was now looking at him. He looked down at his chips and said “nice play” with a reluctantly polite tone.

Boy, I was elated! My battle plan was definitely becoming field-proven here – and my next target was clearly sighted. It had taken careful observation, planning and a lot of patience to wait for the right hand, and then play it correctly to take this highly-skilled, aggressive player out and rake in all of his chips.

About ten minutes later, it was tournament break time, after two hours of play. I counted my chips, which totaled 14,900 (we started with 5,000 each), then grabbed a quick bite to eat, reflecting on what had just taken place.

Within ten minutes of returning from break, I finally picked up a serious starting hand: Cowboys (KK). I knew it was time for my new Russian friend and me to tango, so I fired out a bet of 3 times the big blind: 3,000 chips, bait that I was sure he couldn’t turn down. Sure enough, he bit – big time. His all-in raise came almost instantaneously, before I could even get my bet onto the table. He was totally ready to engage, and had been laying in wait for me – just like I had planned. I had set him up by taking out his friend and then challenging his poker ego in front of everyone. He just had to retaliate against me – it was a totally predictable “full-tilt” response from this kind of player.

This is what the game of poker is really all about – having a well-defined strategy, the patience to wait for the right hand, and then executing properly. It’s what makes poker a game of strategy instead of a game of chance (for some of us).

He raised by going all-in with around 8,000 chips to my roughly 14,000. I quickly called his all-in bet. Everyone else quickly folded and got out of our way.

I flipped my pocket kings over, then looked him straight in the eye and just smiled. Then someone says “Yeah! Now we’ve got some action!” He sighed and flipped over QQ – he actually had a real hand for a change. That’s one of the problems with these kinds of “semi-solid, aggressive” players, like my Russian friend here, and other poker greats like Gus Hansen. You never really know exactly what to expect from them. Of course, my opponent could’ve held pocket rockets (AA), but I’ll play those KK cowboys strong each and every time I get them, since there’s only one hand that can beat them heads-up. I also knew this aggressive player on tilt was likely to be overplaying his hand, improving my odds significantly.

The flop, turn and river came and went without another Queen and it was done – my cowboys stood up and I had all of both Russian’s stacks, which included most of the other two poor maniac’s chips (who lost to the Russians earlier). This instantly made me by far the chip leader at our table with well over 22,000 chips!

I went from having an average chip stack to being the table chip leader, against tough, aggressive opponents, within less than half an hour by:

a) Playing solid, reasonable tournament poker,

b) Not taking big, undue risks with weak or “drawing” hands,

c) Studying my aggressive prey and where the chips were sitting,

d) Formulating and refining a battle plan while observing the game progress,

e) Remaining patient while waiting for the right hand to make my move, and

f) Executing this plan with precision against a predetermined opponent, and on terms of my choosing – not the opponent’s.

There was no luck involved at all – except that my opponent didn’t hold AA or pull some lucky cards with a trash hand – which was simply playing the odds in my favor.

I started out with a high-level strategy to target aggressive chip leaders, and go after them with strong hands from the right position. I planned this before I ever arrived at the casino that day, or knew who these players would be. Then, I refined my plan once I knew for certain whom the evening’s targets would be and how I’d provoke them. It certainly helped that I caught two decent hands during those first hours of play.

Unfortunately, I later lost to a legitimate full house, but made it into the top 40 – it happens…

The key to playing against aggressive and maniac players is having a viable Texas Holdem strategy you can profit from when you get some good hands. If you have a good plan, you can convert it into a formidable stockpile of chips – a stack that you’ll definitely need as the blinds and antes increase and the tournament field narrows in the latter stages.

This is how I approach Texas Holdem strategy for tournaments now – at least when the tables are full with 8 or more players, some of them aggressive and maniacs. So, the next time you encounter wild and aggressive players at your poker table, get ready to have some fun! It’s like Tae Kwon Do – using the opponent’s own energy and momentum against them.

In the next installment, we’ll detail this Texas Holdem strategy more formally, along with exploring some other tournament tips for playing better Texas Holdem poker.

Until then – good luck!

Rick